Forecasting the Potential of New,

High-potential Opportunities

Quantifying Revenue and Profit When Little Data Exists

Introduction

The Forecasting the Potential of Opportunities is a one day strategic program that provides key analytical methods to estimate market sizes and growth rates for new concepts.  

Innovators must have these skills in order to apply the right data and models to determine the potential revenue forecasts and ROI of the opportunity before requesting investment funds. Through a  key concepts, hands-on practice with developing forecasting models, and case studies, innovators will learn new skills, including:

• How to estimate price and market adoption rates by working directly with customers

• The key data and metrics that executives require when approving funding  

• How to develop high and low revenue scenarios based on the key risk factors

• How to use adoption factors to make forecasts more reliable and lower risks

• How to develop the right financial model for each type of opportunity

Program Summary

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PART 1: FORECASTING CHALLENGES

• Why “new” is so difficult to forecast

• The “no market” problem to forecasting

• Key success factors when forecasting new opportunities

• How to find, interpret, and apply industry data

• The problems with using sales and customer input to forecast

• Case Studies:  A review of industry market forecasts and how to interpret 

PART 2: MARKET SIZE FORECASTING

• Estimating timing and growth rates

• Market maturity and S-curve analysis 

• Analyzing & applying adoption and diffusion factors

• Developing a market forecast model

• Creating appropriate scenarios using adoption factors

• Exercise: Developing a market size for an emerging product category
   

PART 3: REVENUE FORECASTING

• Top-down/bottom up forecasting

• Estimating take rates and market share

• Marketing considerations that impact forecasts

• Anticipating competitors market moves

• Applying pricing, channel, and marketing strength

• Exercises: Estimating revenue for a new concept and creating reasonable scenarios 

PART 4: GETTING TO ROI ESTIMATES

• Applying cost and expenses

• Estimating COGS before any product is made 

• Understanding ROI for new opportunities

• Using an options-based approach vs. NPV and IRR 

• Building believable models to meets finance needs

• Exercises:  Developing the ROI for a new opportunity

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Download a complete outline here.

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Who Should Attend

Anyone who wants to get a solid foundation in how to be an effective innovator. This is ideal for:

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• Product managers 

• Product marketing managers

• Aspiring engineers and product developers

• Product, project and program managers

• Entrepreneurs

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What’s Included

• The registration fee includes:

• A comprehensive E-book with tools, examples and key learnings

• Lunch and refreshments are also included

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Dorian Simpson

MBA. BSEE. Consultant. Author. Certified NPDP.

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ATT. Motorola. Intel.